Comments for Principle Investing http://principleinvesting.wordpress.com The investor’s chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself. - Benjamin Graham Tue, 29 Sep 2009 21:03:19 +0000 http://wordpress.com/ hourly 1 Comment on Eaton Corp: My first public stock analysis by Joaquin Grech http://principleinvesting.wordpress.com/2009/02/25/eaton-corp-my-first-public-stock-analysis/#comment-88 Joaquin Grech Tue, 29 Sep 2009 21:03:19 +0000 http://principleinvesting.wordpress.com/2009/02/25/eaton-corp-my-first-public-stock-analysis/#comment-88 Thanks shortbus. Well, thank Mr. Buffett, he is the one that got me looking into ETN. I can't be sure the profits were thanks my analysis, the more I learn, the more I realize what little I know. I want to run an Earnings Power analysis and reproduction cost on it as I learned from the Value Investing book (Bruce Greenwald) and see how it goes but it requires a bit more practice on my part. I'll post a new entry as soon as I return to Spain (I'm at Columbia in NYC trying to meet Prof. Greenwald in person :))) Thanks shortbus. Well, thank Mr. Buffett, he is the one that got me looking into ETN. I can’t be sure the profits were thanks my analysis, the more I learn, the more I realize what little I know. I want to run an Earnings Power analysis and reproduction cost on it as I learned from the Value Investing book (Bruce Greenwald) and see how it goes but it requires a bit more practice on my part. I’ll post a new entry as soon as I return to Spain (I’m at Columbia in NYC trying to meet Prof. Greenwald in person :) ))

]]> Comment on Eaton Corp: My first public stock analysis by ShortBus http://principleinvesting.wordpress.com/2009/02/25/eaton-corp-my-first-public-stock-analysis/#comment-87 ShortBus Tue, 29 Sep 2009 19:34:42 +0000 http://principleinvesting.wordpress.com/2009/02/25/eaton-corp-my-first-public-stock-analysis/#comment-87 yes, Armageddon was averted, congratulations on a very good entry price and nice profits. A pity that the FED has ruined their countries future in doing it. yes, Armageddon was averted, congratulations on a very good entry price and nice profits.

A pity that the FED has ruined their countries future in doing it.

]]> Comment on Eaton Corp: My first public stock analysis by Joaquin Grech http://principleinvesting.wordpress.com/2009/02/25/eaton-corp-my-first-public-stock-analysis/#comment-86 Joaquin Grech Tue, 29 Sep 2009 19:07:44 +0000 http://principleinvesting.wordpress.com/2009/02/25/eaton-corp-my-first-public-stock-analysis/#comment-86 Six months after my purchase, it's at $58. A nice 75% return so far. I will reevaluate the company following Bruce Greenwald's book 'value investing' soon and see whether it's still undervalued. Six months after my purchase, it’s at $58. A nice 75% return so far. I will reevaluate the company following Bruce Greenwald’s book ‘value investing’ soon and see whether it’s still undervalued.

]]> Comment on A new paradigm… for those who don’t study history by Joaquin Grech http://principleinvesting.wordpress.com/2009/05/31/a-new-paradigm-for-those-who-dont-study-history/#comment-73 Joaquin Grech Sat, 06 Jun 2009 12:22:50 +0000 http://principleinvesting.wordpress.com/?p=84#comment-73 Solved it? Frankly I wouldn't have been able to guess it either a few years ago. The similarities between bubbles are always so striking that it's nearly impossible to figure out the time once made anonymous. The first example is talking about the 1969 crash, from Philip Fisher's "Common stocks and uncommon profits and other writings..." (published in 1979), page 258. The second example is talking about the 2000 Internet bubble, from Bruce C.N. Greenwald, Judd Khan, Paul D. Sonkin and Michael van Biema in "Value Investing from Graham to Buffett and beyond", (published in 2001) page 8 in the preface to the paperback edition. Solved it? Frankly I wouldn’t have been able to guess it either a few years ago. The similarities between bubbles are always so striking that it’s nearly impossible to figure out the time once made anonymous.

The first example is talking about the 1969 crash, from Philip Fisher’s “Common stocks and uncommon profits and other writings…” (published in 1979), page 258.

The second example is talking about the 2000 Internet bubble, from Bruce C.N. Greenwald, Judd Khan, Paul D. Sonkin and Michael van Biema in “Value Investing from Graham to Buffett and beyond”, (published in 2001) page 8 in the preface to the paperback edition.

]]> Comment on A new paradigm… for those who don’t study history by Joaquin Grech http://principleinvesting.wordpress.com/2009/05/31/a-new-paradigm-for-those-who-dont-study-history/#comment-72 Joaquin Grech Tue, 02 Jun 2009 13:54:51 +0000 http://principleinvesting.wordpress.com/?p=84#comment-72 Perfect timing. I've just read Ben's entry on Yahoo Finance: http://finance.yahoo.com/expert/article/yourlife/167337 Perfect timing. I’ve just read Ben’s entry on Yahoo Finance:
http://finance.yahoo.com/expert/article/yourlife/167337

]]> Comment on Principle Investing – Introductory Post by Andrew Graham http://principleinvesting.wordpress.com/2008/12/25/introductorypost/#comment-49 Andrew Graham Tue, 24 Mar 2009 19:05:47 +0000 #comment-49 Nigel Brilliant job. Hope to see more of your analysis in the future. Nigel
Brilliant job. Hope to see more of your analysis in the future.

]]> Comment on Principle Investing – Introductory Post by Joaquin Grech http://principleinvesting.wordpress.com/2008/12/25/introductorypost/#comment-38 Joaquin Grech Wed, 18 Mar 2009 19:34:41 +0000 #comment-38 Thank you Nigel. Thank you Nigel.

]]> Comment on Eaton Corp: My first public stock analysis by Joaquin Grech http://principleinvesting.wordpress.com/2009/02/25/eaton-corp-my-first-public-stock-analysis/#comment-37 Joaquin Grech Wed, 18 Mar 2009 19:34:03 +0000 http://principleinvesting.wordpress.com/2009/02/25/eaton-corp-my-first-public-stock-analysis/#comment-37 Disclaimer: I bought ETN at $33. It actually went down to $30 and I wish I had more $ to buy more at that point but at $33 I believe is an excellent buy. Disclaimer: I bought ETN at $33. It actually went down to $30 and I wish I had more $ to buy more at that point but at $33 I believe is an excellent buy.

]]> Comment on Principle Investing – Introductory Post by Nigel http://principleinvesting.wordpress.com/2008/12/25/introductorypost/#comment-36 Nigel Tue, 17 Mar 2009 23:43:22 +0000 #comment-36 An interesting and exhaustive analysis. This adds to my financial education. Thank you. An interesting and exhaustive analysis. This adds to my financial education. Thank you.

]]> Comment on Eaton Corp: My first public stock analysis by Joaquin Grech http://principleinvesting.wordpress.com/2009/02/25/eaton-corp-my-first-public-stock-analysis/#comment-22 Joaquin Grech Sun, 01 Mar 2009 14:25:35 +0000 http://principleinvesting.wordpress.com/2009/02/25/eaton-corp-my-first-public-stock-analysis/#comment-22 I agree with you that you can't predict 10 years of revenue. What puzzle me is that the same way you can't predict whether a number will be too high, you can't predict whether it will be too low either. Although past performance is no guarantee of future performance, when looking at a business I try to see what they did during bad periods and how they came out of it. I average out the good and bad and that way try to arrive to middle consensus. When I also find that management is excellent, that they were able to navigate problematic situations in the past, that earnings have been growing, that they are in an industry that is recession proof, that they have a big economic moat and ultimately, that they have a history of achieving above average returns, the company manages to catch my attention. I can't predict where it will be in 10 years 100% sure, that's why I reevaluate the decision every so often to see if market situation has changed and how much off/on I was on my predictions. Why do you still believe earnings predictions are too high even after lowering it to $2? What do you believe would be a good number? I'm open to a suggestion but it has to be backed by sound reasoning. What is your projected earnings for not 10 years, but 1 year from today and why? I agree with you that you can’t predict 10 years of revenue. What puzzle me is that the same way you can’t predict whether a number will be too high, you can’t predict whether it will be too low either.

Although past performance is no guarantee of future performance, when looking at a business I try to see what they did during bad periods and how they came out of it. I average out the good and bad and that way try to arrive to middle consensus. When I also find that management is excellent, that they were able to navigate problematic situations in the past, that earnings have been growing, that they are in an industry that is recession proof, that they have a big economic moat and ultimately, that they have a history of achieving above average returns, the company manages to catch my attention.

I can’t predict where it will be in 10 years 100% sure, that’s why I reevaluate the decision every so often to see if market situation has changed and how much off/on I was on my predictions.

Why do you still believe earnings predictions are too high even after lowering it to $2? What do you believe would be a good number? I’m open to a suggestion but it has to be backed by sound reasoning. What is your projected earnings for not 10 years, but 1 year from today and why?

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